UAE 2024 non-oil economic growth to surpass official estimates
The UAE’s non-oil economy is poised to grow by 4.7% in the year to December 2024, exceeding IMF estimates by 0.7% and highlighting the success of the country’s ongoing efforts to attract foreign investors and expand its private sector.
Speaking at a media briefing hosted by the Emirates News Agency (WAM), Michael Bolliger, CIO of Global Emerging Markets at UBS Global Wealth Management, highlighted the key drivers behind the UAE’s robust diversification strategy, including tourism and real estate, increased government spending on infrastructure, and surging foreign direct investment (FDI).
The UAE’s tourism sector has posted its best ever performance in 2024, led by record-breaking visitor arrivals to Dubai. According to UAE Ministry of Economy data, hotel revenues rose 7% year on year (YoY) in the first half of 2024 to reach AED 24.6 billion (US$6.7 billion). Furthermore, the number of hotel guests across the UAE's seven emirates rose to 15.3 million during the first six months of 2024, up 10.5% YoY.
Dubai has experienced a surge in international visitors in 2024, welcoming 14.96 million overnight guests during the first 10 months of the year. This represents an 8% YoY increase, positioning the emirate to achieve another record-breaking year in 2024.
Simultaneously, the city’s real estate market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with residential sales climbing by 60% and mortgage applications surging, supported by favourable interest rates.
Dubai property prices have also risen in 2024 and are expected to surge by a further 8% in 2025. The increase has attracted remarkable interest from investors, with the total value of transactions eclipsing $83 billion in the first nine months of 2024.
“The UAE’s fiscal surpluses and adaptability position it as a standout performer in the global economy,” Bolliger said.
The easing of visa regulations and reforms to business ownership laws have further bolstered the economy, attracting fresh private sector investment and fuelling demand for commercial properties in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The construction sector, powered by the government’s sustained investment in capital projects, also remains a cornerstone of the UAE’s economic growth plans.
“Reforms and infrastructure investments are ensuring that the UAE remains a global hub for business, tourism and investment,” Bolliger added.
Looking ahead, the IMF predicts that the UAE’s non-oil GDP will outpace the growth of its oil-led economy, with the former expected to expand by 5.1% in 2025, compared to 4.2% growth projected for the latter next year.